Sunday, March 15, 2009

March 15, 2009 Bracket - Final Prediction

Well, this is it. It took a lot of work, lot of breakdown, lot of scrutinizing and second-guessing, but this is my final prediction bracket for the field of 65.
As is my tradition, I always do my final one BEFORE the remaining 4 automatic bids are handed out, so I predict their results.
This bracket is assuming that:
*Stephen F. Austin wins Southland
*Duke wins ACC
*Tennessee wins SEC
*Purdue wins Big Ten
That one guy at ESPN, Mr. Lunardi, got all 65 right last year. Hopefully this time, it's my turn.

SOUTH REGION (Memphis):
#1 North Carolina (28-4) vs. #16 Winner of Chattanooga (18-16)*/Alabama State (22-9)*
#8 LSU (26-7) vs. #9 Texas A&M (23-9)
#5 Washington (25-8) vs. #12 Western Kentucky (24-8)*
#4 Villanova (26-7) vs. #13 American (24-7)*
#6 Tennessee (21-11)* vs. #11 Creighton (26-7)
#3 Missouri (28-6)* vs. #14 Akron (23-12)*
#7 Utah (24-9)* vs. #10 Utah State (30-4)*
#2 Michigan State (26-6) vs. #15 East Tennessee State (23-10)*

WEST REGION (Glendale):
#1 Memphis (31-3)* vs. #16 Morgan State (23-11)*
#8 West Virginia (22-11) vs. #9 Dayton (26-7)
#5 Ohio State (22-9) vs. #12 Boston College (22-11)
#4 Arizona State (24-9) vs. #13 Stephen F. Austin (23-7)*
#6 USC (21-12)* vs. #11 Maryland (20-13)
#3 Kansas (25-7) vs. #14 Robert Morris (24-10)*
#7 Temple (22-11)* vs. #10 Michigan (20-13)
#2 Connecticut (27-4) vs. #15 Portland State (23-9)*

MIDWEST REGION (Indianapolis):
#1 Louisville (28-5)* vs. #16 Morehead State (19-15)*
#8 Texas (22-11) vs. #9 Siena (26-7)*
#5 Xavier (25-7) vs. #12 Wisconsin (19-12)
#4 Wake Forest (24-6) vs. #13 Cleveland State (25-10)*
#6 Butler (26-5) vs. #11 Minnesota (22-10)
#3 Syracuse (26-9) vs. #14 North Dakota State (26-6)*
#7 Oklahoma State (22-11) vs. #10 BYU (25-7)
#2 Duke (27-6)* vs. #15 CS Northridge (17-13)*

EAST REGION (Boston):
#1 Pittsburgh (28-4) vs. #16 Radford (21-11)*
#8 Clemson (23-8) vs. #9 California (22-10)
#5 Gonzaga (26-5)* vs. #12 VCU (24-9)*
#4 Purdue (24-9)* vs. #13 Northern Iowa (23-10)*
#6 Illinois (24-9) vs. #11 San Diego State (23-9)
#3 Florida State (25-8) vs. #14 Binghamton (23-8)*
#7 UCLA (25-8) vs. #10 Marquette (24-9)
#2 Oklahoma (27-5) vs. #15 Cornell (21-9)*

Bubbles Burst For:
Penn State (22-11)
Baylor (20-14)
Arizona (19-13)
Mississippi State (22-12)...unless they beat Tennessee, but this assumes they won't
Auburn (22-11)
Florida (23-10)
South Carolina (21-9)
St. Mary's (26-6)

Enjoy the madness!

Friday, March 13, 2009

March 13, 2009 Bracket

With just a few days to go, the pressure is quickly getting to some teams, while others are stepping up. I will make one more bracket Selection Sunday morning.
DISCLAIMER: That bracket will ASSUME the winners of the final few automatic bids. It is my final best attempt to select the field of 65.

Meanwhile, here's today's edition. As always, automatic bids, official or assumed, are marked with asterisks.

EAST REGION (Boston):
#1 North Carolina (27-3)* vs. #16 Winner of Chattanooga (18-16)*/Alabama State (20-9)*
#8 Marquette (24-9) vs. #9 Utah (22-9)
#5 Purdue (22-9) vs. #12 Florida (23-9)
#4 Kansas (25-7) vs. #13 American (23-7)*
#6 BYU (25-6)* vs. #11 Minnesota (22-9)
#3 Missouri (26-6)* vs. #14 Buffalo (20-10)*
#7 West Virginia (22-10) vs. #10 Dayton (26-6)
#2 Memphis (29-3)* vs. #15 Cornell (21-9)*

WEST REGION (Glendale):
#1 Pittsburgh (28-4) vs. #16 Cal State Northridge (15-13)*
#8 Texas A&M (23-9) vs. #9 California (22-10)
#5 Gonzaga (26-5)* vs. #12 Boston College (22-10)
#4 Illinois (23-8) vs. #13 Stephen F. Austin (22-7)*
#6 LSU (25-6)* vs. #11 USC (19-12)
#3 Villanova (26-6) vs. #14 Robert Morris (24-10)*
#7 Texas (22-10) vs. #10 Michigan (20-12)
#2 Duke (25-6) vs. #15 Portland State (23-9)*

MIDWEST REGION (Indianapolis):
#1 Michigan State (25-5)* vs. #16 Morgan State (21-11)*
#8 Tennessee (19-11) vs. #9 Siena (26-7)*
#5 Florida State (23-8) vs. #12 Arizona (19-13)
#4 Syracuse (25-8) vs. #13 Northern Iowa (23-10)*
#6 Clemson (23-8) vs. #11 Penn State (22-10)
#3 Washington (25-7)* vs. #14 North Dakota State (26-6)*
#7 Oklahoma State (22-10) vs. #10 San Diego State (22-8)
#2 Connecticut (27-4) vs. #15 Radford (21-11)*

SOUTH REGION (Memphis):
#1 Louisville (26-5)* vs. #16 Morehead State (19-15)*
#8 Ohio State (20-9) vs. #9 Utah State (28-4)*
#5 UCLA (25-7) vs. #12 VCU (24-9)*
#4 Xavier (25-6)* vs. #13 Cleveland State (25-10)*
#6 Arizona State (23-8) vs. #11 Western Kentucky (24-8)*
#3 Wake Forest (24-5) vs. #14 Binghamton (22-8)*
#7 Butler (26-5) vs. #10 Wisconsin (19-11)
#2 Oklahoma (27-5) vs. #15 East Tennessee State (23-10)*

Bubble Watch:
ACC - Maryland (19-12), Virginia Tech (18-13), Miami (18-12)
If Maryland can beat Wake Forest to get to 20 wins today, the Terps would likely be in due to their 4 quality wins against the Top 50. Tech would also likely be in if they upset UNC, who is without Ty Lawson. Miami is headed to the NIT after losing to VT.

Atlantic 10 - Temple (20-11), Rhode Island (22-10)
If Temple can stun Xavier today, the Owls definitely become a promising case for the committee. Rhode Island is headed to the NIT after a shocking loss to Duquesne.

Big East - Providence (19-13)
I think the Friars needed to beat Louisville to have any shot. The Friars will definitely be sweating come Sunday, but I don't think they've done quite enough.

Big Ten - Northwestern (17-13)
It would have been a nice story, but even with 6 quality wins, the overall body of work doesn't help the 'Cats. But they will be a tough challenge in the NIT.

Big 12 - Baylor (19-13), Kansas State (21-11)
With Baylor's stunner over Kansas, the Bears join the discussion. Their computer numbers are nice and they have 4 quality victories now. If they can reach the final with a win over Kansas, the Bears could be in. Kansas State is headed to the NIT after a loss to Texas.

Conference USA - Tulsa (23-9), UAB (22-10)
These two meet today in a semifinal; so it's an elimination game: The winner has a shot at getting in; the loser gets the NIT.

Missouri Valley - Creighton (26-7), Illinois State (24-9)
Creighton will definitely be sweating come Sunday, with all the upsets and craziness. The Redbirds, however, will likely end up in the NIT.

Mountain West - New Mexico (21-11), UNLV (21-10)
The Lobos are likely out after losing to Wyoming in the quarters, and UNLV fell to San Diego State, a fellow bubble team, in the quarters. Both seemed destined for the NIT.

SEC - South Carolina (21-8), Auburn (21-10), Kentucky (20-12)
Kentucky got to 20 wins with a win over Mississippi, but must run the table to get in. If Auburn can knock off Florida, a fellow bubble team, the Gators could drop back out and Auburn takes their place. South Carolina will also need a few more victories.

West Coast - St. Mary's (25-6)
I'm really waffling on the Gaels. They will also definitely be a sweater come Sunday. How will the committee view this team? Is Patrick Mills really at a 100%? And will this extra game against Eastern Washington come back to help them or hurt them?

Next Bracket: Selection Sunday (March 15) morning; final bracket

Monday, March 9, 2009

March 9, 2009 Bracket

Here's today's edition. Automatic bids (official or assumed) are marked with asterisks. The next bracket will be up on Friday, March 13.

EAST REGION (Boston):
#1 North Carolina (27-3)* vs. #16 Winner of CS Northridge (15-13)*/Alabama State (19-9)*
#8 Utah (21-9) vs. #9 West Virginia (21-10)
#5 Gonzaga (25-5)* vs. #12 Penn State (21-10)
#4 Washington (24-7)* vs. #13 VCU (23-9)*
#6 Clemson (23-7) vs. #11 Arizona (19-12)
#3 Oklahoma (27-4) vs. #14 Binghamton (22-8)*
#7 BYU (24-6)* vs. #10 Michigan (19-12)
#2 Pittsburgh (28-3) vs. #15 Robert Morris (23-10)*

MIDWEST REGION (Indianapolis):
#1 Michigan State (25-5)* vs. #16 Morehead State (19-15)*
#8 Texas (20-10) vs. #9 California (22-9)
#5 LSU (25-6)* vs. #12 UNLV (21-9)
#4 Villanova (25-6) vs. #13 AR-Little Rock (23-7)*
#6 Syracuse (23-8) vs. #11 Boston College (21-10)
#3 Illinois (23-8) vs. #14 Buffalo (19-10)*
#7 Texas A&M (23-8) vs. #10 Utah State (27-4)*
#2 Memphis (28-3)* vs. #15 Cornell (21-9)*

WEST REGION (Glendale):
#1 Louisville (25-5)* vs. #16 Morgan State (20-11)*
#8 Tennessee (19-11) vs. #9 Oklahoma State (20-10)
#5 Florida State (23-8) vs. #12 Minnesota (21-9)
#4 Xavier (24-6)* vs. #13 American (23-7)*
#6 Marquette (23-8) vs. #11 St. Mary's (25-5)
#3 Missouri (25-6) vs. #14 Weber State (21-8)*
#7 Ohio State (20-9) vs. #10 Florida (22-9)
#2 Duke (25-6) vs. #15 East Tennessee State (23-10)*

SOUTH REGION (Memphis):
#1 Connecticut (27-3) vs. #16 Radford (21-11)*
#8 Wisconsin (19-11) vs. #9 Dayton (25-6)
#5 UCLA (24-7) vs. #12 Northern Iowa (23-10)*
#4 Butler (26-4)* vs. #13 Stephen F. Austin (21-7)*
#6 Purdue (22-9) vs. #11 New Mexico (21-10)
#3 Wake Forest (24-5) vs. #14 North Dakota State (24-6)*
#7 Arizona State (22-8) vs. #10 Siena (25-7)*
#2 Kansas (25-6)* vs. #15 Charleston (26-7)*

Bubble (Updated 3/11):
ACC - Miami (18-11), Maryland (18-12), Virginia Tech (17-13)
Analysis - If Miami can win a couple games in the ACC tourney and get to 20 wins, they should get in because of solid computer numbers. Maryland and VT might need to run the table or have tournament favorites lose to have a shot.

Atlantic 10 - Rhode Island (22-9), Temple (19-11)
Analysis: The loss to UMass definitely hurt the Rams. They will have to run the table now to get in. Temple, however, may only have to win a couple as they have good computer numbers.

Big East - Providence (18-12), Notre Dame (18-13)
Analysis: Providence has the best shot. If they get to 20 wins, they make a legitimate case. Notre Dame will likely have to run the table, but maybe even in a berth in the final could make a case. Cincinnati and Georgetown are headed to the NIT thanks to their opening round losses to DePaul and St. John's, respectively.

Big Ten - Northwestern (17-12)
Analysis: Many think Northwestern has to run the table to get in. I disagree. If they can beat fellow bubble team Minnesota and #1 seed Michigan State in the Big Ten Tournament, I think the 'Cats deserve it. They are a sentimental pick since they've never made the Dance.

Big 12 - Kansas State (21-10), Nebraska (18-11)
Analysis: Must run the table to get in. Kansas State's computer numbers are too gaudy and Nebraska is only 3-7 against the RPI Top 50.

Conference USA - Tulsa (22-9), UAB (21-10)
Analysis: Must run the table to get in. No real marquee wins for either, although Tulsa beat Texas A&M.

Missouri Valley - Creighton (26-7), Illinois State (24-9)
Analysis: Since these teams can no longer help themselves, they must hope conference favorites win to have a shot. Otherwise, it's the NIT for both.

Mountain West - San Diego State (21-8)
Analysis: Will likely have to run the table to get in. They only have one marquee win against Utah, and computer numbers aren't great.

Pac-10 - USC (18-12)
Analysis: If USC can at least reach semis of Pac-10 tournament, they could have a legitimate case. Computer numbers are fairly solid, and they've beaten Arizona State and California.

SEC - South Carolina (21-8), Auburn (21-10), Kentucky (19-12)
Analysis: Florida shouldn't get too comfortable in the bracket, because it seems only LSU and Tennessee are locks. As for these three, the Gamecocks need a couple wins in the tournament to have any shot. With Auburn's win over LSU, the Tigers join the discussion. They've beaten both LSU and Tennessee. If Auburn makes a run, the Tigers make a case. Kentucky is on life support; they would have to run the table.

Southern - Davidson (26-7)
Analysis: As much as the nation loves Stephen Curry, this may be the year we won't see the Wildcats come the NCAA Tourney. With that loss to Charleston, Davidson will definitely be sweating on Selection Sunday. They have to hope that conference tourney favorites win to have any shot.

Next Bracket: Friday, March 13

Monday, March 2, 2009

March 2, 2009 Bracket

YEE-HAW! It's finally March. Soon, the conference tourneys will kick off, and I'll be making more brackets as automatic bids become official. The first bids will be awarded March 7, so the next one will come on Sunday, March 8, and then one will be made every day right up until Selection Sunday.

EAST REGION (Boston):
#1 North Carolina (25-3) vs. #16 Winner of CS Northridge (14-12)/Alabama State (17-8)
#8 West Virginia (20-9) vs. #9 BYU (22-6)
#5 LSU (25-4) vs. #12 Penn State (20-9)
#4 Washington (22-7) vs. #13 VCU (21-9)
#6 Florida State (22-7) vs. #11 Providence (18-11)
#3 Oklahoma (26-3) vs. #14 Arkansas-Little Rock (22-7)
#7 Utah (20-8) vs. #10 Siena (23-7)
#2 Michigan State (23-5) vs. #15 Buffalo (18-9)

MIDWEST REGION (Indianapolis):
#1 Pittsburgh (26-3) vs. #16 Jacksonville (17-12)
#8 Oklahoma State (19-9) vs. #9 Dayton (24-5)
#5 Illinois (23-7) vs. #12 UNLV (20-8)
#4 Clemson (22-6) vs. #13 Vermont (23-7)
#6 Marquette (23-6) vs. #11 Boston College (20-9)
#3 Missouri (24-5) vs. #14 North Dakota State (23-6)
#7 Minnesota (20-8) vs. #10 South Carolina (20-7)
#2 Memphis (26-3) vs. #15 Tennessee-Martin (21-8)

WEST REGION (Glendale):
#1 Connecticut (27-2) vs. #16 Radford (18-11)
#8 Tennessee (18-10) vs. #9 Texas (19-9)
#5 UCLA (22-7) vs. #12 Maryland (18-10)
#4 Purdue (22-7) vs. #13 American (21-7)
#6 Syracuse (21-8) vs. #11 Utah State (26-4)
#3 Xavier (23-5) vs. #14 Stephen F. Austin (19-7)
#7 Arizona State (21-7) vs. #10 Ohio State (18-9)
#2 Duke (24-5) vs. #15 Robert Morris (21-10)

SOUTH REGION (Memphis):
#1 Kansas (24-5) vs. #16 Morgan State (19-11)
#8 California (21-8) vs. #9 Creighton (25-6)
#5 Villanova (23-6) vs. #12 Florida (21-8)
#4 Butler (25-4) vs. #13 Davidson (24-6)
#6 Gonzaga (23-5) vs. #11 Arizona (18-11)
#3 Wake Forest (22-5) vs. #14 Weber State (20-8)
#7 Texas A&M (21-8) vs. #10 Wisconsin (18-10)
#2 Louisville (23-5) vs. #15 Cornell (19-9)

Bubble Watch:
Virginia Tech (17-11)
Miami (17-10)
Rhode Island (22-8)
Temple (17-11)
Cincinnati (18-11)
Notre Dame (16-12)
Georgetown (15-12)
Michigan (18-12)
Northwestern (16-11)
Kansas State (20-9)
Nebraska (16-11)
Tulsa (20-9)
UAB (20-9)
Northern Iowa (20-10)
Illinois State (22-8)
New Mexico (19-10)
San Diego State (19-8)
USC (16-12)
Kentucky (19-10)
St. Mary's (24-5)

Next Bracket: March 8